#55 - My 'realistic' January transfer window
Yep, it's that time again.
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So, it’s now January. Arsenal have a hectic schedule ahead and more injuries to deal with. We need to do business this month, this weeks I write about my realistic January.
Out
Whilst I don’t know the clubs financial situation, given we broke even over the summer, I expect we have significant financial power. But I understand the club may want to save that for the big summer signing, with Aleksandr Isak linked again.
So, we may need to shift some this month to make room, if only from a squad number point of view. We are short in forward areas, but in defence for example, we are stacked. It might not feel that way right now given the injury issues we have had, but there’s a lot of numbers there and the emergence of Myles Lewis-Skelly as a first XI option at left-back only further enhances that.
I would look to sell Jakub Kiwior. Look, I think he is fine for a 4th choice player, but I do think there’s an opportunity to get £20million+ in the bank for him, given the interest in the player. I don’t think that level of bid will be around forever, and there’s a good chance to sell him now given his recent first team exposure. If Riccardo Calafiori can stay fit, Kiwior becomes a bit redundant and his value will plummet, so I would look to cash in now.
I would also let Kieran Tierney leave on a free, now. He can sign a pre-contract anyway, but given his £110,000 per-week wages, I am sure both the player and club would benefit from an earlier winter split.
These two outgoings would still give Arsenal the following options in defence:
I know what you’re saying, White, Tomiyasu, Zinchenko - all currently injured. But that luck is unlikely to continue, and you have to consider, what if we picked up three offensive injuries like this. Look at our bench against Brentford, just Leo and youngster Kabia available to change the game if we needed it, this the state of our attack with just Sterling, Saka, and Havertz injured. It’s essential we rebalance the squad a bit with freshness in attack key if we are to win extra points.
In the summer, if Tomiyasu has still not managed to come back and show a level of reliability, I would be looking to move on both him and Zinchenko. Both have consistently now proven to be a liability, Arsenal shouldn’t need this amount of defenders, but their unavailability has dictated that. In the summer, I’d like to see Jorrell Hato come in. If we’d like we could keep Tomiyasu around as an emergency cover for all four positions, but Hato in with Zinchenko, Kiwior and Tierney leaving will give us a leaner, but more reliable set of defenders going into the 2025/26 season:
In
Look, I think we need five/six players between now and the summer. A Kiwior and Zinchenko replacement (Hato-esque), another number 8, a winger, a striker, a back up goalkeeper and possibly a number 6 if we let both Thomas Partey and Jorginho leave when their contracts expire.
It’s going to be tricky to get much of that done in January. Hato and back up keeper are of course summer jobs. The striker signing also seems destined for the summer. The other two, I would like us to be proactive and see what we can do.
We also probably need the likes of Raheem Sterling (loan expiry) and Gabriel Jesus to move on before some of it can be actioned.
Arteta may be reluctant to spend in attacking midfield, given we’ve just signed Mikel Merino and the emergence of Ethan Nwaneri. But I do think recent games have highlighted the need for an alternative option in that role. A player who could play as an 8, but also as a 9 or winger, would be beneficial. I always come back to Eberechi Eze, but I struggle to see that happening in January.
I ‘think’ the vision is for Declan Rice to be our long term number 6. Both Jorginho and Partey are set to be out of contract in the summer, so there is space for another 8 and then probably a 6 in the summer, if Arsenal let both of those leave.
I think the club would love to sign a Florian Wirtz or Jamal Musiala for this position, but that isn’t a realistic January move and it looks more likely that the club will make a flagship summer signing at centre-forward.
With Nwaneri excelling in the right-wing berth, and Odegaard struggling lately, there’s more opportunity for a player like this to come in and help us, even in the short term. It may be hard to find, but a loan for a creative 8 profile, perhaps that can play wide too, could be a good one. That’s why I wasn’t shocked when there were rumours of Fabio Vieira returning. A player like that would be a good addition, but ideally of higher quality.
They probably wouldn't loan him to us just to be a bench option, but a player like Julio Enciso. Remember we initially loan Martin Odegaard in a January window before signing him permanently.
There could be a similar opportunity in Madrid with Turkish sensation Arda Güler. He’s a final-third difference maker, full of goals and is reportedly seeking more game time.
There could be another opportunity in Barcelona, with Dani Olmo not able to register, be it a loan or a free deal, Arsenal could benefit from this market opportunity.
In terms of wingers, there’s not many on the market that would improve us, but Arsenal do need to be a bit bullish here. A few years ago we were willing to spend £60m plus on Mudryk, so there must be an appetite to sign a top left winger.
We are trying to win major titles and need to act like it in the market. I would look to take our financial might to Serie A and make a big move for Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, or Ademola Lookman. We could offer both players a good pay rise and put an offer on the table that their clubs would find very difficult to refuse.
From the Premier League, I’m a bit fan of Mathues Cunha, who I think could play on the left for us, but if we want a more out-and-out winger who can play wide, Antoine Semenyo is an interesting option. Perhaps a lower ceiling than some other options, but he’s just 24 and is proven in the Premier League, ready to hit the ground running. Bournemouth’s ambitions this season may make him one of the least attainable options though.
If we want Premier League, I still would consider Simon Adingra. He’s had a bit of a poor season and struggled with injuries, but he’s a two-sided, strong 1 vs 1 winger of a good age (23). Because of his form, there’s probably a more realistic deal to be done there too.
There's also the 25-year-old Frankfurt winger, Omar Marmoush. I must confess, I knew little about him until recent weeks when I saw the links surface. He’s been bubbling along in the Bundesliga and really exploded this season.
The Egyptians needed 13 goals and made 7 assists in 15 league games this season, 4 goals, and 2 assists in 6 more Europa League games. Those are pretty stunning returns and his age and form indicates he's moving into prime territory. His versatility would be handy, he's player right across the frontline, left right and more often than not this season, as a centre forward.
He profiles similarly to Vinicius Junior on fbref, that's quite the comparison. His goal and shot creation metrics are nothing short of elite. 0.93 goal-creating actions a game, and 4.82 shot creating actions. He's also impressive technically with incisive passing and link up play.
As you can see from the video above, he’s a bit of a free-kick specialist too, something the squad currently lacks.
So overall I’m looking at a circa £40m net-spend in January. Tierney’s wage release would free up funds for the Guler/Olmo move, whilst any Kiwior sale would discount our winger signing. I think this is a realistic window that would give the squad an appropriate injection to help us win trophies this season.
Outs - Kiwior (£20m), Tierney (free)
In - Marmoush or Lookman (£40m-£60m), Guler or Olmo (loan/free)
Why does RB on the left and LB on the right of the images 😂...