#63 - Deep dive: Finding the perfect ST signing
I developed a formula to grade some of Arsenal's attacking targets, here's how I did it and who came out on top
It feels like we are already looking ahead to the summer, so I wanted to do a deep dive into the strikers around Europe currently and try to rank my favoured targets using a mix of eye-test and statistical data.
I built a scoring model that combines several on-the-field attributes with off-the-field factors like value.
I’ve shortlisted seven options, filtering based on stats, which whittled it down considerably, then realism, rumours of the style of striker we are after and links that already exist. The final seven are:
Samu Aghehowa
Ollie Watkins
Viktor Gyokeres
Alexander Isak
Hugo Ekitike
Benjamin Sesko
Lautaro Martinez
I graded the options based on a four-factor system.
1: Finishing (/10) – Arsenal need a clinical forward who can convert chances efficiently, especially given the team's ability to create high-quality opportunities. Consistency in finishing under pressure is key.
2: Link-up & work rate (/10) – A striker in Arteta’s system needs to be more than just a poacher. They should be able to combine with wingers and midfielders, hold up the ball, and contribute to fluid attacking moves. He also needs to press well and have a strong work rate. Someone with good off-the-ball work ensures the team maintains intensity and control that Arteta seeks.
3: Big-Game mentality (/5) – Arsenal need a striker who delivers in high-pressure moments, whether it's against title rivals or in crucial European fixtures. Mentality and composure in key moments can make a difference.
4: Value (/5) – Age, transfer fee, wages, and resale potential all matter. Arsenal need a striker who represents good value for money, balancing quality with affordability while fitting within the club’s financial strategy.
At the bottom of the article I go into more depth about my formula. But first, I am going reveal the order of the top seven.
7 - Samu Aghehowa (14.7)
Samu comes in cut-adrift from the rest of those rated. To be honest, before starting this I hadn’t seen much of him live, but I’d heard the name linked to us and he’s a popular pick amongst fans. He’s young and a striker that’s scoring goals, so no doubt as to why we may be interested.
But when I started to look into his stats and watched more full game footage, there were several concerning aspects to his game for me.
He ranked the lowest in my model for a variety of finishes and composure. Most of his goals come in the penalty box and from short distances and variety of finishes is key for me, as well as the composure to take chances under the increased pressure cooker of the Premier League. His all-round play ranks pretty poorly too. A low amount of progressive passes received and poor pressing numbers had me wondering how he'd fit into an Arteta team.
6 - Ollie Watkins (17.6)
It never seemed likely that Watkins would be a target beyond January. For me he would've been a good signing in the winter but if the club weren't willing to go to £60million for him, it indicates he's not near the top of the list in the summer.
His stats are solid, but not outstanding and he lost points in value due to his age and estimated cost. He is Premier League proven though, which carried weight in how I awarded points to statistics compared to those in weaker leagues.
Watkins ranked very highly in his pressing numbers and his instinct and positioning in the eye test.
His actual finishing execution, though, is poor compared to others in this list. He tracks below his xG and his shot conversion and accuracy numbers are below average.
Whilst he’s comfortably above Samu as an option for me, he’s not close to the final five in terms of a fit for Arsenal right now.
5 - Benjamin Sesko (18.6)
In at #5 is the bookies’ favourite to arrive at Arsenal this summer. Ranking Sesko in some aspects was hard. During the eye test you see glimpses of explosion potential, a bit like Isak at Sociedad. This feels like the signing with the highest upside but perhaps the biggest risk, too.
Sesko is a lethal finisher, ranking above his xG and his shot accuracy suggests that is a trend he will continue to follow due to his phenomenal ball-striking.
He also has a huge variety of finishes. Some incredible long-range goals, closer range and headers. If there's one thing I'd like to see more of it’s those poaching goals, but I think that can come with more experience.
Where he really fell down in comparison to the others was his link-up play. There's some decent short passing which you could see helping Arsenal in tight areas against defensive sides, but his overall creative and passing numbers are poor. He's also not the best presser, difficult because of his huge frame, but perhaps with the right coaching this can improve too.
4 - Lautaro Martinez (19.0)
Number three is a long-term favourite player of mine and our new Technical Director, Andrea Berta, is also said to be a big fan.
He turns 28 this summer, so he lost value points for that reason, but Berta when at Atletico, was not afraid to go big for older players when required. I nearly excluded him from this because it’s hard to see what Inter would sell him for, if at all. But perhaps Lautaro fancies a change of scenery and if it’s going to happen for him, it sort of needs to be this summer.
Lautaro's combination play is really good, he's a great presser and has a huge amount of big-game experience. You feel like if Arsenal really want to push for the title in the next year or two, he'd be an good fit.
Whilst having few headline stats, the Argentine was 2nd or 3rd across the board in many metrics, making him a great all-round forward, ready to hit the ground running.
3 - Hugo Ekitike (19.5)
The hipsters’ choice perhaps, Ekitike has grown in popularity over the last few months as his form at Frankfurt has made him impossible to ignore.
Previously at PSG, it didn’t quite work out for him. Now, a little older and more settled, he turns 23 in the summer and is showing signs of an Isak-esque explosion.
The issue is Frankfurt got £60million for Marmoush, who is older than Ekitike. You would think they’d want at least that number to lose their other top attacking talent.
He has great variety to his attacking game, both in his finishing and link-up play. He's well-rounded with solid pressing and high xG numbers. He falls down a bit with his execution with fairly poor conversion numbers - but if he has an Isak-like next couple of years, that could well improve.
2 - Viktor Gyokeres (19.7)
Coming in at second is former Coventry striker, Viktor Gyokeres. He’s followed up a sensational debut season in Portugal with an equally demonstrative record this season.
With 15 goals in 26 caps for Sweden, a hat trick against Manchester City, and several goals in crucial league games for Sporting - he’s shown his ability to show up in the big moments.
Entering his prime years, Gyokeres may not have played in the Premier League, but his time in the Championship would certainly help with any adjustment period.
His link-up play and passing numbers are pretty impressive compared to some of the other options on the list. He's racked up 16 assists in the last two league campaigns and 4 in 6 for Sweden this season.
You could see him coming into this Arsenal team and having an instant impact. Value has always been a question here, but with rumours his price could be more around the £60million mark this summer after another explosive season, this one is startling to look more appealing.
1 - Alexander Isak (20.8)
Is anyone surprised? Even with giving him a 2/5 on the value rating, Isak stands tall atop the rankings with 20.8.
Isak is 26 in September, so he’s only early peak. It feels like, fitness permitting, if you can land Isak you’d have a guaranteed elite striker on your hands for the next four seasons. That feels like exactly what this Arsenal project needs. A proper gunman who can turn ties for you and be the crowning jewel on this excellent Arsenal project.
Isak's numbers are elite. He ranks so high in pretty much every metric. He looks the best finisher when you look at the stats and the eye test. His devastating finish against Liverpool in the Carabao Cup final was indicative of that.
The only flaws in my model were his aerial duels and his pressing isn't brilliant (similar to his compatriot and 2nd placed Gyokeres). There's also the concern about his slightly messy injury history, especially when you consider the price he would cost (£120m+).
Extra reading: The formula explained
Finishing (total /10 points awarded)
As finishing is the most important factor for most, I wanted to take a deep dive here and blend the eye test with key statistics. Here’s my scoring system explained for finishing:
Statistical Metrics
Non-pen goals per 90 – A basic indicator of how frequently the striker scores.
xG (Expected goals) vs. Actual goals – If a striker consistently outperforms their xG, they are a clinical finisher. If they underperform, they might be wasteful.
Shot conversion & accuracy – Percentage of shots that result in shots on target and goals. A high conversion rate (e.g., 20% or more) usually signals strong finishing.
Eye Test
Composure – Do they stay calm under pressure or rush shots?
Variety of finishes – Can they score in different ways (one-on-ones, headers, volleys, weak foot, long-range shots, tight angles)?
Instinct/positioning in the Box – Do they anticipate rebounds, make smart movements, and react quickly?
Here are my results. With the stats I’ve applied a bit of weighting to league difficulty, stats are mainly based on last 365 days with some consideration to previous seasons.
Link-up & work rate (total /10 points awarded)
Another key aspect of playing in this Arsenal side is to combine well and work hard. Here I evaluated the players based on five metrics.
1. Key Passes & Assists Per 90
Measures how well a striker creates chances for teammates.
A high number of key passes and assists indicates strong link-up play.
2. Pass Completion in Final Third
Shows how well they retain possession and combine with attacking players.
A high percentage (e.g., above 75%) suggests composure and technical quality.
3. Progressive Passes Received
Tracks how often a striker gets into advanced positions to receive the ball.
Higher numbers show intelligent movement and willingness to stay involved.
4. Pressures & Tackles in Final Third
Measures defensive contribution and pressing intensity.
A high number of pressures indicates work rate and commitment to team structure.
5. Aerial Duels & Hold-Up Play Success
If a striker wins duels and holds the ball effectively, they help the team build attacks.
Aerial ability is useful for linking with teammates, especially in a system that relies on crosses.
Then, each player was awarded up to 5 points for big game impact and value. This incorporates historical performance in high-pressure games and the expected cost and ages of the players. In total, up to 30 points were available.
Jonathan David....