#20 - Centre forward or winger: Who should be Arsenal's next attacking signing?
As we approach the January transfer window, I take a closer look at one of the bigger transfer debates right now, do we need another centre forward or winger?
Arsenal's current attacking options are heavily reliant on the talents of Gabriel Martinelli and Bukayo Saka, and it raises an important question in the next steps of their transfer strategy. Should they prioritise signing a centre forward or a winger as their next attacking reinforcement?
Arsenal’s wide attack, under Mikel Arteta, has shown a clear dependence on Martinelli and Saka, with other options like Reiss Nelson not receiving significant minutes and those who are trusted like Leandro Trossard, offering very different attributes and lacking the pace and directness of the starting duo. This indicates a potential lack of trust in existing alternatives and highlights the need for an external solution.
Arsenal have lost three Premier League games this season, two 1-0 and the other 2-0 - it’s fair to say that with better attacking subs, they may have been able to take points from the games. Afterall in those three games Arsenal produced around 5 expected goals, and didn’t score once. The squad is currently trending towards scoring 72 league goals, that’s a fair bit fewer than most eventual Champions manage.
Over the last seven Premier League seasons, the Champions have averaged 92.4 goals, with the fewest being 85. Whilst Arsenal’s defence has improved this season and that will certainly help, it’s fair to say Arsenal need to find a way to score more than 80 goals to help them to a title, and their two defeats where they’ve failed to score highlights the impact on the points tally.
Centre Forward Role at Arsenal
Arsenal's centre forward often plays a facilitator role, linking up play and contributing to the team's overall attacking dynamics. In Gabriel Jesus' absence, players like Kai Havertz and Leandro Trossard have shown they can adapt to this role. Some may say Arsenal need a 20+ league goal a season striker to win the league and it’s a view that the likes of Gary Neville appear very persistent on. I’m not of that belief and do feel that in Jesus, Havertz and Trossard, Arsenal have three facilitating centre-forward options. With fresh penetrative wide players who can score frequently, this is a combination I believe can win the league, we saw similar when Roberto Firmino was the centre forward for Liverpool.
But as defences have dropped deeper and deeper against the Gunners this season, it has been noticeable the lack of physical and aerial presence in the box, especially in Kai Havertz absence when Arsenal fell to a 2-0 home defeat against West Ham.
The Winger Dilemma
The lack of clear alternatives for Martinelli and Saka in the winger positions is a significant concern. This absence of depth could has proven detrimental, with the club relying on Martinelli and Saka playing 90 minutes every three days.
Addressing this gap with a high-quality winger signing could provide Arsenal with the tactical flexibility and depth they currently lack.
Unlike at centre forward, Arsenal don’t have many or any similar alternatives to Saka and Martinelli if they are injured or not performing. Nelson has shown it in flashes but doesn’t have the manager’s trust. Trossard does have his trust but doesn’t have the attributes to execute exactly what the manager asks of his wide players. The wingers in Arsenal’s system need to hold width, defend diligently and carry the ball at pace in transition.
The Versatility of Gabriel Jesus
The versatility of Gabriel Jesus adds an interesting dimension to this debate. If Arsenal opted for a centre forward in January, Jesus could be deployed more often as a winger. This flexibility might influence the decision-making process, leaning towards a centre forward who can lead the line, allowing Jesus to operate from wider positions, or in support of a new striker when the game state dictates.
Some could argue that Jesus is more of a winger than a number nine anyway and that signing an out-and-out number nine could allow Jesus to rotate with Saka and Martinelli on the flanks.
Player Availability and Market Opportunities
Ultimately I think Arsenal probably need to add both a winger and centre forward in the next two windows, with the likes of Eddie Nketiah and Reiss Nelson making way.
The transfer market's dynamics could play a crucial role in Arsenal's decision in January. The potential availability of players like Ivan Toney, a proficient centre forward, might steer the club's strategy towards reinforcing this position. Player availability, price, and fit within Arteta's system will be key factors in determining the direction of any January investment.
Sales
Another factor is sales. There have been reports that Arsenal need to sell in order to buy in January. Arsenal could consider bids for the likes of Eddie Nketiah, Aaron Ramsdale, Reiss Nelson and Emile Smith Rowe. Should a good bid arrive for one of the players, it both creates funds for a new arrival whilst also creating a gap in the squad. If Nelson were to go, Arsenal may determine a winger is now the most essential signing, whereas if it’s Eddie, you’d think they’d go for a centre-forward.
Ultimately Arsenal need to take advantage of the money in the Premier League and find buyers for as many fringe players as possible. Nketiah isn’t good enough to start for Arsenal and is ineffective off the bench. He would however be valuable for teams like Brentford and Crystal Palace. Nelson was wanted by many clubs in the summer. Smith Rowe continued to not be trusted from the start, despite Havertz’s absence against West Ham. Arteta needs to use these players or cash in and invest in players he will trust and use.
Conclusion
In conclusion, Arsenal's choice between a centre-forward and a winger is not straightforward. It involves balancing the immediate needs of the squad with the tactical flexibility and long-term strategy under Arteta. While the addition of a centre-forward could offer more traditional attacking options, reinforcing the winger positions would provide depth and alleviate the heavy reliance on Martinelli and Saka.
Ultimately, market opportunities, player availability and potential sales will likely play a pivotal role in shaping Arsenal's attacking investment in January. One thing I am sure of though, is that to win the Premier League or Champions League this season, Arsenal must do something in the market.